New NAFTA Negotiations “to Succeed”

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The process to start renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) has already started on Capitol Hill.
According to expert Jaime Zabludovsky, who held a conference on the subject at Tijuana’s World Trade Center on Wednesday, May 24, the renegotiation process is expected to be carried out successfully.
Zabludovsky was a key player in the consolidation of NAFTA in the early 1990’s by participating as Deputy Chief Negotiator for Mexico. Currently, Zabludovsky is one of the most active advisers in the prelude to the renegotiation of the trade agreement with the United States and Canada.
NAFTA is an agreement signed by Canada, Mexico, and the United States, creating a trilateral trade bloc in North America. The agreement came into force on January 1, 1994, superseding the Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement, held between the U.S. and Canada.
In recent months, NAFTA has made headlines because U.S. President Donald Trump has made different announcements regarding the agreement. Trump has said numerous times that he intends to pull the United States out of the agreement if it is not modified to favor the U.S.
Zabludovsky explained that Trump has to send to the U.S. Congress a detailed letter where he explains what he is seeking with the renegotiations. This letter needs to be sent in approximately two months. This means that the three countries involved in the agreement may start renegotiations as soon as August.
“I think if the three countries realized that the renegotiations need to be done quickly. Then they can actually be held on the second semester of the year, and be concluded within six months, so the three presidents can shake hands by the end of the year,” Zabludovsky said. “But if the agreement has changes done that are not approved by the U.S. Congress or any of the other two countries, the renegotiations may be delayed until 2019.”
If NAFTA renegotiations are postponed, that means that the United States and Mexico will both have election years impacted by the agreement.
“I think that the renegotiations are going to be successful,” Zabludovsky said. “What I think is going to happen, is that items are going to be added like the ones added to the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement about intellectual property, electronic commerce, data protection, social networks, developments in the drug industry, and items to shape Mexico’s energy and telecommunications reforms.”
There is a possibility of there no longer being a free trade agreement, or no U.S. participation in NAFTA, which are possible but less likely. If so, the United States would be regulated by the World Trade Organization.
“Not having NAFTA is not the end of the world, but I also don’t think that this is going to happen,” Zabludovsky added.