A new political reality has set in: Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee for President of the United States in the November election.
Conventional political wisdom didn’t predict this would happen. At the beginning of this election cycle last year, not many professional politicians or commentators thought Trump could make it past the likes of Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, and Chris Christie, each having been favored as front-runners for the nomination.
But this Tuesday, with Trump’s thumping of Ted Cruz in Indiana, the road to the nomination was suddenly cleared for the former reality star turned political juggernaut. With John Kasich dropping his bid for the nomination the next morning, Trump immediately claimed the mantle as his party’s standard-bearer.
The only problem for Trump is it seems the Party doesn’t want him.
Just as soon as Trump called for party unity, several high profile Republicans immediately ran to distance themselves from him. Former President George H. W. Bush, who has backed EVERY Republican nominee since he was President in 1992, announced he was “retired from politics” and would not be making an endorsement. Similarly, former President George W. Bush also announced he would not endorse Trump. Then came Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, himself the last Republican nominee for Vice-President, announcing Thursday that he was not prepared to endorse the only Republican running for President.
It is unprecedented for the nominee of one of the two major parties to be shunned by the intellectual leaders of his own party. There seems to be a huge political divide between the leaders of the Republican Party and Republican voters who have propelled Trump to victories over every party favored candidate.
So this dysfunctional dynamic will be the backdrop for the November general election. It seems inevitable that Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee now that Bernie Sanders has run up against the mathematical impossibility of securing enough delegates to win the nomination. That will be the matchup of the century: the wife of a former President and first woman ever nominated by a major party, running against a first-time candidate and reality star without the support of a majority of his own party’s leadership.
It’s not that Republicans are actually for Hillary Clinton, but they understand the long-term damage that Trump could inflict on the Party. Trump, they fear, could alienate large blocks of voters Republicans have been trying to court for years; moderate women, young voters, and minorities, especially Latinos.
That’s where Trump’s racist and confrontational tactics will come back to haunt him. His campaign has been based largely on attacking these groups in favor of rallying uneducated white males, and those positions are not popular in the general election.
The November elections are important not only in the race for President, but also for control of Congress. Across the country, several congressional and U.S. Senate races are contested and could tip the balance back to Democratic control. In some close races, Republican candidates are already distancing themselves from Trump. The candidate at the top of the ticket may end up hurting all lower campaign candidates and give Democrats victories in states that they may not have won had Cruz, Rubio, or even Kasich been the nominee.
This isn’t to say Hillary Clinton will run away with the election. She is a flawed candidate as well, but she will have the support of her party, as well as that of the increasingly popular outgoing President, Barack Obama. Obama will campaign for her to protect his own legacy and help secure the survival of his policies, including Obamacare and his deferred deportation actions.
And don’t forget Hillary Clinton’s biggest political asset, her husband Bill. Surely, Trump will attack the Clintons for their past, but Republicans have pretty much already beaten that dead horse without much success. Even the flap over Clinton’s emails seems to have fizzled into nothing.
The meltdown of the Republican Party has become like a prison uprising where the guards can sometimes do nothing more than let the inmates fight it out until it’s safe to enter again and regain control. Sometimes it’s just too dangerous to step in and risk getting killed in the melee.
Latinos around the country will have an opportunity to vote in November for the candidate they think best represents their interests, supports their issues, and understands their concerns.
Unless he abandons his former positions and retracts his past comments, it seems Latinos will join women, young voters, other minorities, and now a growing number of Republicans, too, in opposing Trump for President.