Donald Trump’s naked attacks on Latinos, Muslims, women, gays, and other minority groups may come back to bite him in the end, setting up one of the most ironic political paybacks of all time.
Since the launch of his campaign for President, Trump has declared war on just about every group except right-wing, conservative, angry white male voters.
He’s called for building a “huge” wall along the entire US-Mexico border from San Diego to the Gulf in Texas to keep Mexicans out.
He’s called for banning all Muslims from entering the country for fear they may be terrorists.
He’s called for punishing woman that get abortions, then back peddled, then doubled down again.
He’s even called for trying to round up and deport all undocumented immigrants, a plan that is so unworkable even Republicans think it’s crazy.
Trump’s political calculus has been that his tough-on-everyone stance would gain him more votes from angry white men than he would lose among low-voting moderates and liberals.
That plan also assumed that the nomination race would be over by the time California’s primary came around on June 7th. For the most part, that strategy would have worked had Trump not faced such a determined group of opponents in this long primary season.
In most past elections, California has not played a role in deciding party nominations because our election is so late in the primary schedule. Although our state has the most delegates at 172, we have usually not been in play in the race for the nomination.
But this year, given the chaotic Republican primary race between Trump and all the anti-Trump forces trying to stop him, it looks like no candidate will earn the magic 1,237 delegates needed to clinch the nomination outright.
With the state primary elections still left before June 7th experts predict Trump would need to score a strong election outcome in California to avoid a brokered convention where he could lose the nomination to another candidate.
So that puts California in the unusual position of being the make-or-break primary for Trump. The largest state with the most diverse voters will have a chance to decide the outcome of the Republican nomination.
Trump’s problem may be that California has a history of turning back extreme candidates in recent election.
In 1998, the state elected moderate Gray Davis as Governor over then–Attorney General Dan Lungren by nearly 20%, considered a landslide by statewide standards. More recently, Meg Whitman lost her campaign for Governor when she seemed too focused on illegal immigration and, hypocritically, had an undocumented housekeeper for over 20 years, but fired her right before the campaign.
Our state also has turned down rich, first-time candidates in favor of experienced politicians. Wealthy businessman Al Checchi lost his primary campaign for Governor in 1998 to Gray Davis; former HP CEO Carly Fiorina lost in her race for US Senate in 2012 to Barbara Boxer; and Neal Kashkari lost to Jerry Brown in the 2014 Governor’s race. The notable exception, of course, was Arnold Schwarzenegger’s election as Governor in 2003, but he started with sky-high favorable ratings before crashing back to Earth during his 7 years as the Governator.
States have differing methods of allocating delegates to the candidates. In California, our 172 delegates are awarded in two groups: 3 delegates awarded to the highest voter getter per Congressional district, totaling 159 delegates; and 13 statewide delegates awarded to the candidate that gets the most votes in the state overall.
That means votes will matter on a local level, as well as statewide. California has pockets of voters similar to the ones that have buoyed Trump’s campaign in the South and Midwest but, overall, our state is much more moderate and supportive of equal rights, reproductive rights, and inclusionary polices. Those do not match up well with Trump’s positions.
San Diego County has five congressional districts, three represented by Democrats in Juan Vargas, Susan Davis, and Scott Peters. The two other districts are represented by Republicans Darrell Issa and Duncan Hunter. Only Hunter has publicly endorsed Trump.
In other parts of the State, Orange County and the Central Valley may be in play for Trump, but Los Angeles and San Francisco will prove to be very difficult for him to win over.
This election will be important for many local issues but, for once in a long time, California may play an important role in the national election. For the first time in a generation, our State will matter as much or more as the early voting states like Iowa and New Hampshire.
Maybe after this campaign cycle, the election rules will be changed to move our primary sooner in the process and allow our large and diverse state to help shape the country’s presidential elections.
For now, Californians may put the brakes on Trump’s momentum and deny him the nomination he largely built on hate, division, and rhetoric. California may be a huge wall blocking Trump from the White House.
What an ironic twist of fate for the once seemingly unbeatable Trump.